Net-Net Investing: Buying Dollars for 50 Cents (Graham’s Secret)
Net-Net Investing: Buying Dollars for 50 Cents (Graham’s Secret)
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- The Mechanism: A “Net-Net” is a stock trading below its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV). This means if the company shut down today, paid off all debt, and burned its factories to the ground, the remaining cash/inventory would still be worth more than the current stock price.
- The Logic: It is the ultimate margin of safety. You are paying nothing for the buildings, land, machinery, or future earnings. You are buying the liquid assets at a discount.
- Authority Baseline: This analysis follows the Graham-Newman Partnership methodology, which generated ~20% annual returns over 20 years by buying baskets of these “liquidating” stocks.
- Anti-Exaggeration: Most Net-Nets are terrible businesses (losing money, bad management). You don’t buy them for their future; you buy them for their present liquidation value.
Before Warren Buffett bought great companies like Coke, he bought “Cigar Butts”โnasty companies selling for less than their scrap value. This is Net-Net Investing. It is mathematically “risk-free” in the long run because you are buying money for less than it’s worth. According to Team BMT Analysis, this strategy still works today, but only in the obscure corners of the market (Micro-Caps and International Stocks) where institutions cannot go. Source: The Intelligent Investor (Chapter 15)
Scenario: Ugly Widget Co. Stock Price $5. Market Cap $5M.
- Assets:
Cash: $4M.
Inventory/Receivables: $4M.
Factories/Land: $10M.
Total Current Assets: $8M. - Liabilities:
Total Debt: $2M. - NCAV Calculation:
Current Assets ($8M) – Total Debt ($2M) = $6M Liquidation Value.
The Deal: You can buy the whole company for $5M (Market Cap), instantly pocketing $1M in liquid value, plus getting $10M of factories for free.
Performance: Net-Nets vs. Market (1984-2008)
| Strategy | Annualized Return |
|---|---|
| S&P 500 Index | 10 |
| Graham Net-Nets (Global) | 25 |
*Chart Note: The outperformance is driven by “Mean Reversion.” These companies are priced for bankruptcy. If they simply survive (or get acquired), the stock often doubles or triples to reach fair value.
CRITICAL SCENARIO: The “Cash Burn” Trap
When cheap gets cheaper.
| Condition | Risk Level |
|---|---|
| Company is losing money rapidly | High. They are burning the cash that creates your margin of safety. If they burn it all, the NCAV drops to zero. |
| Company is break-even or profitable | Low. The assets are protected. You can wait patiently for the market to realize the value. |
Execution Protocol
You cannot find these manually. Use a screener (like Uncle Stock or Screener.co).
Formula: Price < 0.66 * (Current Assets – Total Liabilities).
Look globally (Japan often has hundreds of Net-Nets; US has very few).
Exclude companies from China (fraud risk) and Biotech (binary outcome). Prioritize companies with: 1) No debt. 2) Insider ownership (management eats their own cooking). 3) A dividend (shows cash is real).
Sell when the price rises to meet the NCAV (Fair Value), or after holding for 2 years if nothing happens. Don’t fall in love. These are not “Compounding Machines”; they are “One-Puff Cigars.”
Decision Order: Run Screen โ Filter for Burn Rate โ Buy Basket โ Rebalance Annually.
WEALTH STRATEGY DIRECTIVE
- Do This: Allocate 5-10% of your portfolio to a “Deep Value” bucket using Net-Nets. It provides uncorrelated returns because these stocks move based on idiosyncratic events (liquidation, buyout) rather than the S&P 500.
- Avoid This: Buying Net-Nets in a taxable account if you trade frequently. The short-term capital gains will eat your alpha. Use a Roth IRA.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why doesn’t everyone do this?
Because it’s ugly. You are buying dying retailers and boring manufacturers. It’s hard to tell your friends you own “Bob’s Screw Factory” instead of “NVIDIA.” Also, capacity is limited (Micro-caps only).
Do they still exist in the US?
Rarely. In efficient markets, they disappear fast. You mostly find them during crashes (2008, 2020) or in less efficient markets like Japan, Korea, or Hong Kong.
What is the catalyst?
Usually 1) A buyout by a competitor, 2) Liquidation, or 3) A return to profitability. Or simply the market realizing “Wait, this cash is real.”