The Acquirer’s Multiple: Why EV/EBIT Beats P/E Ratio Every Time
The Acquirer’s Multiple: Why EV/EBIT Beats P/E Ratio Every Time
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- The Flaw: Most investors use the P/E Ratio (Price-to-Earnings) to find cheap stocks. But P/E ignores Debt. A company with a low P/E might be drowning in debt, making it a “Value Trap.”
- The Solution: The Acquirer’s Multiple (EV/EBIT) fixes this. It compares Enterprise Value (Stock + Debt – Cash) to Operating Earnings (EBIT). It tells you the true price to buy the entire business, debt-free.
- Authority Baseline: This analysis follows the quantitative value framework proved by Tobias Carlisle, showing that low EV/EBIT stocks outperform low P/E stocks and the S&P 500 over 50+ year periods.
- Scope Limitation: This metric works best for industrial, retail, and service companies. It fails for Banks and Insurance companies because their “debt” is actually inventory (deposits).
If you were buying a house, would you only look at the down payment (Stock Price) and ignore the mortgage (Debt)? Of course not. Yet, P/E investors do exactly that. The Acquirer’s Multiple forces you to look at the total price tag. It reveals hidden bargains (cash-rich companies) and exposes hidden traps (debt-heavy companies). According to Team BMT Analysis, this is the single most robust valuation metric in finance. Source: The Acquirer’s Multiple Research
Scenario: Company A and B both earn $100M (EBIT). Both have $1B Market Cap.
- Company A (Debt Heavy): Has $500M Debt.
Enterprise Value: $1B (Stock) + $0.5B (Debt) = $1.5B.
Acquirer’s Multiple: 15x. (Expensive). - Company B (Cash Rich): Has $500M Cash.
Enterprise Value: $1B (Stock) – $0.5B (Cash) = $0.5B.
Acquirer’s Multiple: 5x. (Cheap). - Verdict: Both have P/E of 10. But Company B is actually 3x cheaper to acquire because the cash comes with the house.
Backtest Performance (1973-2017)
| Strategy | Annualized Return (CAGR) |
|---|---|
| S&P 500 Index | 10 |
| Acquirer’s Multiple (Top 10%) | 18 |
*Chart Note: Buying the cheapest stocks based on EV/EBIT generated nearly double the annual return of the market. It captures the “Deep Value” premium more accurately than Book Value or P/E.
CRITICAL SCENARIO: The “Value Trap” Screen
Why cheap can be dangerous.
| Metric | What It Misses | Correction |
|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | Ignores Leverage (Debt). Can make a bankruptcy candidate look cheap. | Use EV/EBIT to penalize debt. |
| P/B Ratio | Ignores Intangibles (Brand/IP). Makes Tech stocks look expensive falsely. | Use EV/EBIT (Earnings based) to value cash flow, not assets. |
Execution Protocol
You cannot calculate EV/EBIT in your head. Use a stock screener (like Finviz, Tikr, or AcquirersMultiple.com).
Filter: EV/EBIT < 10 (Cheap). Market Cap > $500M (Avoid micro-cap fraud).
Sometimes EBIT is inflated by a one-time asset sale. Check the Cash Flow Statement. Is “Operating Cash Flow” similar to EBIT? If Cash Flow is significantly lower, the earnings might be fake (Accounting trickery).
If you don’t want to pick stocks, use ETFs like QVAL (Alpha Architect US Quantitative Value) or DEEP (Roundhill Acquirer’s Deep Value). They systematically buy low EV/EBIT stocks.
Decision Order: Choose Vehicle (Stock/ETF) โ Filter out Financials โ Verify Cash Flow โ Buy & Hold 1 Year.
WEALTH STRATEGY DIRECTIVE
- Do This: Use EV/EBIT when comparing two stocks in the same industry (e.g., Ford vs. GM). It will instantly tell you which one has the cleaner balance sheet.
- Avoid This: Ignoring “Mean Reversion.” Deep value stocks are often hated for a reason (lawsuits, bad earnings). You are betting that the problems are temporary. It requires a strong stomach.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is this the Magic Formula?
Close. Joel Greenblatt’s Magic Formula uses EV/EBIT (Cheapness) + ROC (Quality). The Acquirer’s Multiple uses only EV/EBIT. Research suggests pure cheapness often outperforms cheapness + quality.
Why EBIT and not EBITDA?
Buffett hates EBITDA (“Does management think the tooth fairy pays for CapEx?”). EBIT accounts for Depreciation (CapEx), making it a truer measure of sustainable profit.
What is a good number?
Historically, the S&P 500 trades at 12-15x EV/EBIT. Anything under 8x is cheap. Anything under 5x is “Deep Value.” Anything over 20x is expensive.